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Tuesday's De-brief - Yesterday we had more sunshine. Yesterday morning our low temps in the
valleys were just as cold or colder than Monday morning. 11 to 16 degrees was very common from Aspen to Basalt. During the afternoon we moderated to 52 in town.
Today (Wednesday)....Updated 500am - I'm going to keep the same ideas that we have talked about for today. The closed low down in Arizona migrates north into Utah. This fact brings us a touch of upper air support but I would call it weak. Another factor to consider, we will be fighting a very unfavorable wind profile. Our winds above the surface today will be S to SW, this is a downslope wind for Aspen.
So here's the deal. With our wind turning S and SW above the surface, we are going to have advection of low level ambient water today. I can see this happening on the satellite loop as strata cumulus clouds are already working northward. I think these strata cumulus clouds will make it here and eventually block the sun. I will switch my sky cover forecast around and do something different. I will call our sky cover today increasing clouds. I will allow for an isolated PM shower but I think the bad wind profile keeps a lot of us mainly dry.
Summation, let's go increasing clouds as strata cumulus clouds make northward progress. I will allow for an isolated PM shower but I'm not too excited about it. High temps near Aspen hit the low 50s, expect 37 to 42 up at the ski areas from 10 to 11K.
Thursday (Updated 500am) - The closed low will be in Utah to start the day. This system gradually turns into an open trough and moves into Colorado during the afternoon/evening. I'm sensing better upper air support than today as we get decent mid and high level energy in the PM. Our wind profile is still poor from the SW most of the day, it does turn light upslope WNW late day and during the evening. The speed of our upslope component late day/evening is weak with values under 10kt.
Summation, so let's call the day mixed clouds and sun. Later in the afternoon/evening we tend to cloud over. I will also be allowing for rain/snow showers to develop later into the first part of Thursday night. I could see an inch or so up at the ski areas by midnight. The higher valleys could also get some flakes once we move toward dark. Look for high temps around Aspen to be near 51/52.
Friday (Updated 500am) - The trend for Friday is we lose upper air support off to the E and SE. This fact will cause subsidence or sinking air over our region. I see us starting the day with some strata cumulus clouds, then clouds diminish and we experience a fair amount of sun. In terms of temps, it won't be cold behind this exiting upper air trough, I think we hit the low to mid 50s in Aspen.
Extended Forecast (Sat-Mon 10/20-10/22) - I still believe that Saturday and Sunday are 'Indian Summer' type days with a decent amount of sun. Expect high temps of 55 to 60 with lows 28 to 33.
On Monday I'll have to keep an eye on things. A new upper air trough is slated to arrive and bring an increasing risk of valley showers. The showers would be wet snow from 10K and above. Monday is Day 6 and the models will learn more each day. I can tweak the forecast as we move forward.