Click Below if you want to see the Winter Outlook.
Monday's De-brief: We all know what happened yesterday. It was nice at dawn, then it went downhill quickly by noon and it never looked back.
Ski Resort Totals for Yesterday -
Snowmass: Timberline 15", Mid-slope 11 to 12".
Highlands: Cloud Nine 7", Bowl 11.5".
Aspen Mtn: Top 5", Mid-slope 7".
Valleys - It depended on your elevation and exposure but the Aspen to Basalt corridor did well.
Quick Forecasts for Today (Tuesday):
Aspen to Basalt: Variable clouds. We still have the risk of some flakes. Highs in the mid 20s in the Aspen to Basalt corridor. Wind NNW 7 to 15mph. Low tonight -4 to 2 above.
On-Mtn: Variable clouds. We still have the risk of some flakes. High 14 at mid-slope, near 10 at 11K. Wind NNW 11 to 22mph.
Today (Tuesday)....Updated 630am - So today we don't have the upper air support that we had yesterday. However, we still have our complex terrain and a northerly upslope wind at mountain top. I think this northerly upslope wind is going to allow strata cumulus clouds to hang around today. Sure we may also see some intervals of sun at times but overall I will call our sky cover variable clouds. I believe some flakes are still possible but additional snow would be quite light.
Another theme for today is colder temps, we will not break freezing in the valleys today. I expect mid 20s in the Aspen to Basalt corridor. Tonight we have a perfect fresh snow cover, high surface pressures, and light winds near the surface. We could get cold if we don't have strata cumulus clouds rotating in and out. I have a feeling it won't stay totally clear all night but I'll allow for patches of clear skies. I'll go -4 to 2 above for our low temps.
Wednesday (Updated 630am) - We start the day with less than 1G/Kg of ambient water a couple thousand feet above our heads. As the day progress our ambient water rises to 2.5G/Kg, this means we are getting a moisture surge. Our wind at mountain top is upslope NW at 30 to 35mph for the balance of the day and the night. So we are advecting higher ambient water into an upslope flow aloft, this in itself is dangerous.
So if we can get some vertical motion added to this equation we are in business. I think this will happen as mid and high level energy will be diving SE toward us. We also appear to get the left front quad of the jet for a while, this is where high level divergence happens.
Summation, I will call our sky cover becoming cloudy. I will allow for snow showers to develop in the afternoon and continue at night. I'll keep 2 to 4 more inches at the ski areas by dawn Thursday. I'm still worried about Wednesday/Wednesday night, my gut is getting a funny feeling every time I look at it. To be honest it has for a week. I cannot rule out more snow happening!! I see the valleys getting 1 to 3" for now with temps below freezing all day and night. Remember, not all valley spots are created equal, if you are elevated and have a NW aspect you will do better.
Thursday (Updated 630am) - I believe our NW upslope flow will persist. I also believe we gain some instability and we still have agitation to our air mass as the jet is not that far away. I will keep snow showers in the forecast for most of the day. I could see an additional 1 to 2 or 1 to 3" at the ski areas. High temps stay below freezing in the valleys.
Extended Forecast (Fri-Sun 1/25-1/27) -
Friday - I still believe Friday will bring a chance of more snow showers. The GFS model suite has nothing, the European model looks more realistic and produces another 1 to 2". I will follow the Euro as it makes more sense and allow for small accumulations. If the track of the mid-level energy changes only a little, there would be more snow, I'll keep an eye on it.
Saturday - I think Saturday will be free of upward motion or any features aloft. I will keep it dry under partly cloudy skies.
Sunday - I'll keep Sunday dry for now but I could see some snow getting in here very late at night. Sunday is Day 6 so trying to account for a few hours at night is a difficult thing to do. My guess is more snow will fall during Monday.
Airport Extended Temps:
Fri: Upper 20s/ 8 to 13.
Sat: 30/ 10 to 15.
Sun: 30s/ 14 to 19.