Monday's Debrief - Yesterday was cold with mixed clouds and sun. There were a few flakes around early in the day, then a few more flakes showed up deep down valley during the evening.
Quick Forecast for Today (Tuesday) :
Aspen: A good deal of sun. Highs in the 30s from Aspen to Basalt. Wind WNW to NW 7 to 14mph. Low tonight 10 to 15.
On-Mtn: A good deal of sun. High 20 to 24 at mid-slope and 11K. Wind WNW to NW 10 to 20mph.
Today (Tuesday)...Updated 615am - Ridging aloft arrives today and this will cause sinking air over the region. This sinking air will bring a good deal of sun. Surface pressures are respectably high today which means low level mixing will not be all that great. Poorish low level mixing means our high temps will remain chilly. I'm expecting 30s this afternoon in the Aspen to Basalt corridor.
Wednesday (Updated 615am) - Ridging aloft gets stronger during Wednesday, this means there is no doubt that we have dry conditions. I expect a day with sunshine mixed with some high clouds here and there. Our afternoon temps will moderate as surface pressures lower and the strong March sun angle does its thing. Look to low to mid 40s around Aspen.
Thursday (Updated 615am) - Ridging aloft remains in tact and it should be another day with a decent amount of sun. The March sun angle is a powerful beast my friends, we should begin to push 50 during the afternoon near Aspen.
Extended Fcst (Fri-Sun 3/9-3/11) - Energy aloft starts to invade the west coast during Friday/Friday night. Guidance still does not have a decent handle on this situation. The models are indicating little or no precip and that could happen. What bothers me is we likely get a moisture surge with more than 3G/Kg of ambient water arriving at night. If any upper air support were to be around during this time, that would cause problems. I'll allow for a Trace to 1" of snow Friday night until I'm positive it won't happen.
Saturday we will have OK ambient water and decent instability. It will just be a matter of do we get any upper air support that helps to agitate the atmosphere. I'm anticipating a variable clouds type day with a few snow showers roaming around. I'll go a Trace to 1" at the ski areas.
On Sunday energy aloft may attempt to come up from the SW. This is a very tough call as the energy could also make an abrupt stop and only impact locations from Telluride south. I'll keep an eye on it.
Progress report on March - Right now I only see weak threats for snow in the near future, if we get a little this weekend that would be good. The pattern aloft from March 15th onward looks very dangerous to me. Yes I have been around a while which is another way of saying I have aged (LOL), I have seen this pattern before is what I'm getting at. The high latitude blocking over all of Canada is an omen, if this blocking stays there which it should for the most part, be ready for surprises the last half of the month.