Fcst Discussion (600am Monday 1/22/18)

Hello Everybody,

Sunday's Debrief - Yesterday turned colder and we had fluff.  We all know how important 'Deformation' is now.  After the 300pm update yesterday afternoon, we had another 1 to 2" at the ski areas.

Snow Totals from Saturday night and Sunday - Snowmass - 13.5", Aspen Mtn - 11.2", Highlands - 7", Buttermilk - 6".  I'm happy we got these numbers, we needed Highlands to do better.

Forecast Discussion:

Today (Monday)...Updated 600am - Today we have energy aloft that dives SE from the pacific NW.  This energy is not very strong and its trajectory is N and NW of here.  We do get a band of mid-level energy this evening/tonight, I can't rule out a few flakes but it does not look like anything important.

Summation, there could be a few flakes very early then I'll call our sky cover mixed clouds and sun.  Maybe we see some flakes/flurries this evening /tonight.  In terms of temps, it will be cold as low level mixing is poor and surface pressures are high.  Look for 20s around Aspen and teens at the ski areas.

Tuesday (Updated 600am) - Subsidence is happening aloft and I don't see any upper air support of note.  Look for a day with a fair amount of sun.  Low level mixing is poor so high temps from Aspen to Basalt will be near 32.

Wednesday (Updated 600am) - A new storm will be located off the pacific NW coast, this feature will cause ridging aloft.  Expect a day with sunshine and a few high clouds.  Surface pressures lower enough that we get milder, I see 38 to 42 from Aspen to Basalt.

Extended (Thur-Sat 1/25-1/27): 

Thursday - The models are doing poorly with our new trough. There will be a SW wind ahead of this trough, that means it will be dry and mild during the day.  A general consensus says the new cold front passes late at night.  Guidance is very dry and that bothers me, I will ignore it as usual and put some snow in the forecast.

Ski Resort Snow - 1 to 3" at Ngt.

Friday - It will be cold along with batches of mid/high level energy.  Our wind profile will be upslope NW, our thermal profile will be fluff worthy.  Ambient water overall is pretty low which could end up being a negative.  My guess is we have snow showers.

Ski Resort Snow - 2 to 4" by dawn Sat.

Saturday - Right now it looks subsident aloft with dry conditions, temps stay cold.

Ski Resort Snow - 0".

Cory