Monday's Debrief - Yesterday was dry and cold. Last night the upper air feature arrived and we had some very light snow. It did not snow much but it least the system produced a dusting in the valleys, I didn't think it was even capable of that. The ski areas also got a dusting or so, I saw close to a half-inch on the snow stake at Elk Camp. If we take an optimistic point of view it's always better than nothing.
FYI... The site has been tweaked and is up now. I'm emailing from Word Press this morning and hopefully everybody gets it. Let us know.
Today (Tuesday)...Updated 615am - So the flavor of today is subsidence. Weak upper air energy goes away quickly this morning and is followed by sinking air. This means we have some strata cumulus clouds around early followed by a decent amount of sun. Surface pressures are high enough that low level mixing will be poor, I expect high temps from 29 to 34 from Aspen to Basalt.
Wednesday (Updated 615am) - Ridging aloft is the clear winner during Wednesday. Look for another day with a decent amount of sun and a few high clouds. Our high temps gets milder in the afternoon, look for 37 to 42 in the Aspen to Basalt corridor. The sheltered valleys near Basalt will be the coldest.
Thursday (Updated 615am) - The models are not doing a good job with Thursday and timing is also a huge problem. There are a few things I can tell Y'all about this new upper air trough. It does not look as good as the trough last Saturday night and Sunday. It lacks ambient water and also lacks stronger upward motion. The European model produces the most snow and right now I trust it more than the rest of the guidance. The GFS model basically has us at no snow, this means we have a ways to go in terms of figuring this one out.
Summation, we will be downsloped by a SW wind during the daylight hours, it should be dry and rather mild. The trough gets closer at night and a cold front passes late. Our big problem is other global models produce a few inches Thursday night and nothing on Friday, the Euro is the opposite with nothing at night and a few inches on Friday. Right now confidence is low with this event.
Extended (Fri-Sun 1/26-1/28) - Confidence remains low on Friday until this system gets analyzed by the United States upper air network. I'll go with the Euro and say 2 to 4", I'll probably have a lot of tweaking to do later this week.
On Saturday I could see some flakes early followed by subsidence and drier conditions.
Ridging aloft dominates for Sunday and it will definitely be dry.