Quick 2 Day Forecasts:
Today (Wednesday) - Sunshine and a few high clouds. High 37 to 42 in the Aspen to Basalt corridor. Sheltered valleys near Basalt will be colder. Low 10 to 15.
Thursday - OK AM, mid/high clouds begin to increase in the PM. Highs in the 40s in the Aspen to Basalt corridor. Snow gradually evolves at night. 1 to 2" by dawn Friday. Low close to 20.
Today (Wednesday) - Sunshine and a few high clouds. High 27 to 32 at mid-slope and 11K. Wind Becoming W to WSW 9 to 18mph, stronger speeds above 12K.
Thursday - OK AM, mid/high clouds begin to increase in the PM. Highs in the 30s at mid-slope and 11K. Wind SW 15 to 25mph, winds stronger above 11.5K. Snow gradually evolves at night. 1 to 3" by dawn Friday.
Today (Wednesday)...Updated 615am - Ridging aloft will be the winner today out ahead of our next upper air trough. Look for sunshine and a few high clouds. Temps start out cold early this morning, this afternoon surface pressures will be lower than recent days and we get a bit milder. Look for upper 30s to low 40 in the Aspen to Basalt corridor. The sheltered valleys near Basalt will be the coldest.
Thursday (Updated 615am) - Right now I cannot get behind the United States models as they look too weak with this next upper air trough. The European and Canadian models tend to do a better job out in the data void pacific and they will be followed. So it looks like we will be fine during Thursday AM as the trough is still too far away. As it gets closer in the afternoon expect increasing mid/high clouds. Overall, we are downsloped by a SW wind during the day and Y'all already know it won't do squat. Our high temps get milder with compression from the SW wind.
Thursday night - A new cold front arrives overnight and this will cool our thermal profile dramatically. We will quickly go to a fluff profile after midnight. The SW wind direction will also go away with the frontal passage. Our ambient water is not overly high but it's doable, that means it's OK. In terms of upper air support, I think we get some in the form of mid-level energy and some high level divergence.
Long story short, I think snow gradually evolves. I will go back to what I had a couple days ago and call it 1 to 3" at the ski areas overnight. The valleys get some too as we have enough upward motion.
Friday (Updated 615am) - I believe the European model will be right with an additional shot of upward motion during the morning hours as strong mid-level energy has to pass. I will allow for some more snow and say 2 to 4" at the ski areas and probably 1 to 3" in Aspen proper. During the afternoon we lose ambient water and flakes will be much more scattered. Friday will also be a colder day, look for high temps only in the 20s around Aspen. It will be cold at the ski areas with potentially single digits and low teens.
Extended (Sat-Mon 1/27-1/29) - I see the Saturday through Monday period as dry. On Saturday subsidence gradually kicks in and any flakes in the AM probably stay to our north. Ridging aloft dominates on Sunday and Monday. Next event appears to be on Wednesday 1/31.