Tuesday's De-brief - Yesterday was sunny in the morning, the afternoon brought some high clouds and a smattering of cumulus. There was also a thin veil of smoke. The high temp hit 84 at the airport, it was 88 to 90 at Basalt's elevation.
Quick Forecasts for Today (Wednesday):
Aspen: Mostly sunny this morning, scattered cumulus clouds and very warm this afternoon. We could also have a bit of smoke. High 85/86 Aspen, 90/91 Basalt. Wind WNW 9 to 19mph becoming W. Low tonight 48 to 53.
On-Mtn: Mostly sunny this morning, scattered cumulus clouds and warm this afternoon. We could also have a bit of smoke. High 72 at mid-slope, 67 near 11K. Wind WNW 11 to 22mph becoming W.
Today (Wednesday)...Updated 615am - So today June will be June and it will remain dry. Here's today in a nutshell. The ridge aloft will hold and our ambient water stays well below June thresholds. I expect a day with lots of sun this morning, then this afternoon brings scattered cumulus clouds. It's hard to predict where smoke might end up, we might see a thin veil at some point, we might not. Our high temps today will be very warm, I'll say 85/86 at the airport and 90/91 around Basalt.
Summation, mostly sunny this AM followed by scattered cumulus clouds this PM. There could also be a little smoke around. Indices for Today...UV Outlook an 8, Outdoor Index an 8 or 9, Thunderstorm chance 0%.
Thursday (Updated 615am) - Continuity seems best right now. The center of the ridge aloft eases a bit to our SE. This allows our ambient water to ever so slowly climb. I think our PM dewpoints in Aspen hover near 32, this is still below June thresholds and right now I'm not overly impressed. It looks like mid and high level energy is also not enough to significantly agitate our atmosphere.
Summation, I'll call the day mixed clouds and sun and I'll allow for a PM shower/storm in a few spots. My guess is a lot of us stay dry as we have evaporation going on in the low levels. High temps cool a touch as there will be a bit more clouds, I like 81 around Aspen. Indices for Thursday...UV Outlook a 6, Outdoor Index a 7, Thunderstorm chance 20%.
Friday (Updated 615am) - The tropical system named 'Bud' will be a depression and located on the lower end of the Gulf of California. Remember, we could care less that Bud has weakened, all we want is its moisture.
Based on the position of the depression, my educated guess is we are not in the pocket of super high ambient water yet. Let's talk about this for a sec, I believe our PM dewpoints are going to reach 35 to 40 in the afternoon. My friends, this is a huge improvement but the better juice is still a day away. So if we can find some upper air support, a 35 to 40 dewpoint will work. Right now I don't see a lot of upper air support. We may have to rely on our CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values and complex terrain to get a bit of action in the afternoon/evening.
Summation, one thing to watch for is the European model is totally dry so nothing is etched in stone yet. I'm going to call the day variable clouds and pockets of sun and allow for a PM shower or storm. High temps cool to the upper 70s around Aspen. Indices for Friday...UV Outlook a 5, Outdoor Index a 6, Thunderstorm chance 20 to 25%.
Extended Forecast (Sat-Mon 6/16-6/18) - I think Saturday is our best shot for beneficial rain. Our wind profile becomes due S and this will make our ambient water go above 7G/Kg. This equates to dewpoints well into the 40s. I also see decent upper air support late day and at night. My hope is we get some decent showers out of it before dawn Sunday.
Sunday and Monday are not worth talking about yet because the models are horrific. Guidance does not where the plume of good ambient water will be located nor do they have a feel for upper air support. My guess for Sunday is this scenario. I'm thinking it will rain Saturday night and leave us with lingering high ambient water on Sunday. It won't take much upper air support with the leftover juice to get a few radar echoes going.
The GFS is hideously dry on Monday and Euro has the risk of a PM shower/storm. I'll watch the data over the coming days and tweak the forecast.